Tampa Bay Rays at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Yandy DiazBatting3-4
- Zach EflinPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Diamondbacks- Ketel MarteBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Zach DaviesPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9J. Lowe doubled to center, Raley scored and Franco scored.3–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–2
- 9Raley singled to right, Díaz scored, Franco to second.1–2
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–2
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging0–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–2
- 4C. Kelly singled to center, Walker scored.0–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 3Marte singled to right, Thomas scored, McCarthy to third.0–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Diamondbacks 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 43%
- Fair odds
- ARI -102
- TB +102 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 4.9 – 4.9 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1549 | 1524 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +12 | −27 | TB: Zach Eflin: team allows 0.58 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · ARI: Zach Davies: team allows 1.37 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +46 Elo | TB 56.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 51.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 50.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TB | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 305.5 | Runs scored | 5.25th of 30 |
| 1st of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 4.721st of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+1.8 | Margin | +0.57th of 30 |
| 17th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 9th of 3020–18 | Road vs home | 24–189th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TB 0–1 ARI in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.