Arizona Diamondbacks at San Francisco Giants, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SF.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Ketel MarteBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Merrill KellyPitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 2 K
Giants- Luis MatosBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Keaton WinnPitching3.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Gurriel Jr. reached on infield single to second, Marte scored, Thomas to third.6–7
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–7
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 15–7
- 6Matos homered to left (354 feet), Crawford scored.5–7
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–7
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 25–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 15–5
- 5Sabol hit sacrifice fly to center, Pederson scored.5–5
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–4
- 5Pederson tripled to right, Estrada scored.5–4
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–4
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking5–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 25–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul5–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 15–3
- 5Walker doubled to center, Carroll scored, Perdomo scored and Marte scored.5–3
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball In Play5–3
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball 32–3
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging2–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 22–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 12–3
- 5Marte singled to right, McCarthy scored, Perdomo to second.2–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–3
- 3Sabol singled to right, Pederson scored, Conforto to second.1–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–3
- 1Conforto doubled to left, Estrada scored.1–2
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–2
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging1–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 1Pederson grounded out to second, Wade Jr. scored, Estrada to second.1–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 1Marte homered to right (337 feet).1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Giants 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF 50%
- Fair odds
- SF -108
- ARI +108 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 4.7 – 4.9 SF
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1521 | 1521 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +18 | −3 | ARI: Merrill Kelly: team allows 0.88 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · SF: Ryan Walker: team allows 0.14 more runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +2 Elo | ARI 50.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 52.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 51.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ARI | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 305.2 | Runs scored | 5.07th of 30 |
| 20th of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 4.314th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.4 | Margin | +0.65th of 30 |
| 10th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 9–12nd of 30 |
| 2nd of 3023–13 | Road vs home | 22–1812th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
ARI 3–2 SF in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.