San Diego Padres at San Francisco Giants, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SF.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Fernando Tatis Jr.Batting3-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Seth LugoPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Giants- Joc PedersonBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Anthony DeSclafaniPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Pederson walked, Matos scored, Schmitt to second, Bailey to third.3–4
- 9Pitch 7 : Ball 43–4
- 9Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul3–3
- 9Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Swinging3–3
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 33–3
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging3–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 23–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 13–3
- 8Pederson homered to right (363 feet).3–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 23–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 13–2
- 7Crawford singled to center, Matos scored, Bailey to second.3–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 13–1
- 5Tatis Jr. homered to center (408 feet).3–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–1
- 4Conforto grounded into double play, second to shortstop to first, Estrada scored, Davis out at second.2–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 22–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 3Machado grounded into fielder's choice to first, Tatis Jr. scored.2–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul2–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 3Soto doubled to left, Grisham scored, Tatis Jr. to third.1–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Giants 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF 53%
- Fair odds
- SF -115
- SD +115 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 4.2 – 4.6 SF
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1508 | 1521 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | −9 | SD: Seth Lugo: team allows 0.02 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · SF: Anthony DeSclafani: team allows 0.46 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SF +22 Elo | SF 53.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 53.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 53.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SD | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.2 | Runs scored | 5.07th of 30 |
| 3rd of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 4.312th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+0.3 | Margin | +0.74th of 30 |
| 10th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 30 |
| 14th of 3016–17 | Road vs home | 19–1717th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SD 2–1 SF in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.