Tampa Bay Rays at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Yandy DiazBatting1-3
- Zach EflinPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Padres- Manny MachadoBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Blake SnellPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 12 K
Scoring summary
- 5Machado reached on infield single to third, Grisham scored.0–2
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–2
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging0–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 20–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 5Soto hit sacrifice fly to center, Kim scored, Grisham to third.0–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rays 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 56%
- Fair odds
- TB -106
- SD +106 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 4.0 – 3.9 SD
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1557 | 1507 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +10 | −3 | TB: Zach Eflin: team allows 0.48 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · SD: Blake Snell: team allows 0.15 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +45 Elo | TB 56.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 50.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 51.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TB | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 305.6 | Runs scored | 4.222nd of 30 |
| 1st of 303.6 | Runs allowed | 3.94th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+2.0 | Margin | +0.311th of 30 |
| 5th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–410th of 30 |
| 6th of 3020–15 | Road vs home | 15–2026th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TB 1–0 SD in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.