Tampa Bay Rays at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Randy ArozarenaBatting3-4
- Yonny ChirinosPitching4.2 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Padres- Manny MachadoBatting1-3, 2 RBI
- Joe MusgrovePitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 8Ramírez singled to right, J. Lowe scored, Margot to second.4–5
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball In Play4–5
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul3–5
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–5
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 23–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 13–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–5
- 8Margot singled to right, Arozarena scored, J. Lowe to third.3–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 12–5
- 5Machado singled to center, Grisham scored.2–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–5
- 4Odor doubled to right, Cronenworth scored.2–4
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–4
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging2–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 22–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 12–3
- 4Margot hit sacrifice fly to center, Raley scored.2–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–3
- 3Machado hit sacrifice fly to left, Soto scored.1–3
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 21–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
- 3Soto grounded into fielder's choice to catcher, Grisham scored on error by shortstop Franco and Tatis Jr. scored on throwing error by shortstop Franco, Soto third.1–2
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–2
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking1–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 31–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 21–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Automatic Ball 11–0
- 2J. Lowe singled to center, Arozarena scored, Paredes to second.1–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging0–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rays 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 54%
- Fair odds
- TB -103
- SD +103 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 4.0 – 3.9 SD
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1555 | 1509 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | 0 | TB: Yonny Chirinos: team allows 0.12 more runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · SD: Joe Musgrove: team allows 0.00 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +26 Elo | TB 53.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 50.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 50.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TB | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 305.6 | Runs scored | 4.222nd of 30 |
| 1st of 303.6 | Runs allowed | 3.94th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+1.9 | Margin | +0.312th of 30 |
| 10th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–410th of 30 |
| 7th of 3020–16 | Road vs home | 16–2026th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TB 1–1 SD in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.