San Diego Padres at San Francisco Giants, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SF.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Juan SotoBatting2-4, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Michael WachaPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 0 K
Giants- Mike YastrzemskiBatting3-5, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- Keaton WinnPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 10Yastrzemski homered to right (388 feet), Pederson scored and Estrada scored.4–7
- 10Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–7
- 10Pitch 4 : Ball 34–7
- 10Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking4–7
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball 24–7
- 10Pitch 1 : Automatic Ball 14–4
- 9Bailey hit sacrifice fly to left, Yastrzemski scored.4–4
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–4
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul4–3
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking4–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul4–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 14–3
- 9Sabol scored on García wild pitch, Yastrzemski to second on wild pitch by García.4–3
- 9Sabol scored on García wild pitch, Yastrzemski to second on wild pitch by García.4–3
- 6Yastrzemski homered to right (357 feet).4–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 14–1
- 5Villar homered to left center (379 feet).4–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–1
- 5Soto homered to left (373 feet).4–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–0
- 4Kim singled to right, Cronenworth scored and Odor scored.3–0
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–0
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 11–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 1Soto homered to left (374 feet).1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Giants 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF 49%
- Fair odds
- SF -112
- SD +112 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 4.3 – 4.5 SF
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1510 | 1519 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +19 | −12 | SD: Michael Wacha: team allows 0.95 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · SF: Ryan Walker (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | SD +3 Elo | SD 50.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 53.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 52.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SD | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.2 | Runs scored | 5.07th of 30 |
| 2nd of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 4.312th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.3 | Margin | +0.74th of 30 |
| 6th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 30 |
| 12th of 3016–16 | Road vs home | 18–1718th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SD 2–0 SF in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.