San Diego Padres at San Francisco Giants, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SF.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Trent GrishamBatting2-3, 1 RBI
- Yu DarvishPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
Giants- Joc PedersonBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Sean HjellePitching4.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Cronenworth hit sacrifice fly to center, Soto scored.2–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–4
- 7Grisham singled to center, Kim scored.1–4
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–4
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking0–4
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 30–4
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 20–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 10–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–4
- 5Davis singled to right, Pederson scored, Yastrzemski to third.0–4
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging0–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–3
- 5Yastrzemski singled to center, Villar scored, Pederson to second.0–3
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–3
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking0–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 20–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 10–3
- 5Pederson singled to right, Sabol scored, Villar to third.0–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–2
- 5Crawford hit sacrifice fly to left, Matos scored.0–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Giants 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF 55%
- Fair odds
- SF -118
- SD +118 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 4.1 – 4.5 SF
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1507 | 1522 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −11 | −8 | SD: Yu Darvish: team allows 0.55 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · SF: Ryan Walker: team allows 0.41 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SF +37 Elo | SF 55.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 53.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 54.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SD | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.2 | Runs scored | 5.07th of 30 |
| 3rd of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 4.312th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+0.3 | Margin | +0.74th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 9–12nd of 30 |
| 15th of 3016–18 | Road vs home | 20–1714th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SD 2–2 SF in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 4.