Arizona Diamondbacks at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Ketel MarteBatting3-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Ryne NelsonPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Brewers- Jesse WinkerBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Colin ReaPitching5.1 IP, 4 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 7Adames grounded into fielder's choice to third, Contreras scored, Miller out at second.5–7
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–7
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul5–6
- 7Contreras doubled to center, Perkins scored and Wiemer scored.5–6
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–6
- 7Yelich grounded out to pitcher, Urías scored, Wiemer to second, Perkins to third.5–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–4
- 6McCarthy reached on infield single to second, Thomas scored, C. Kelly to second.5–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 14–3
- 4Winker homered to center (416 feet), Adames scored.4–3
- 4Pitch 7 : Ball In Play4–3
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball 34–1
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul4–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking4–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 24–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul4–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 14–1
- 2Urías doubled to left, Adames scored, Anderson to third.4–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–0
- 2Marte homered to right (398 feet), C. Kelly scored and McCarthy scored.4–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 21–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 1Carroll singled to center, Marte scored.1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Brewers 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 49%
- Fair odds
- MIL -104
- ARI +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 4.5 – 4.6 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1521 | 1492 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | −1 | ARI: Ryne Nelson: team allows 0.26 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · MIL: Colin Rea: team allows 0.03 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +6 Elo | ARI 50.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 51.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 50.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ARI | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 305.2 | Runs scored | 4.026th of 30 |
| 20th of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 4.414th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.5 | Margin | −0.323rd of 30 |
| 10th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3021–11 | Road vs home | 21–1712th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
ARI 3–1 MIL in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.