Arizona Diamondbacks at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Alek ThomasBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Merrill KellyPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Brewers- Christian YelichBatting1-3, 1 RBI
- Corbin BurnesPitching5.0 IP, 7 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Carroll homered to left center (380 feet).9–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play9–1
- 6Marte grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, McCarthy scored on throwing error by second baseman Miller, Perdomo out at second.8–1
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play8–1
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 27–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging7–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking7–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 17–1
- 4Marte grounded out to second, Thomas scored, Perdomo to second, McCarthy to third.7–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play7–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 16–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul6–1
- 3Yelich tripled to right, Anderson scored.6–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging6–0
- 1Thomas homered to right (412 feet), Rivera scored.6–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking4–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 14–0
- 1Rivera grounded into fielder's choice to second, Walker scored, Gurriel Jr. out at second.4–0
- 1Pitch 9 : Ball In Play4–0
- 1Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul4–0
- 1Pitch 7 : Ball 34–0
- 1Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul4–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball 24–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul4–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 14–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul4–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–0
- 1Gurriel Jr. singled to right, Carroll scored and Marte scored, Walker to third.3–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 1Walker singled to center, Perdomo scored, Carroll to second, Marte to third.1–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging0–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Brewers 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 47%
- Fair odds
- MIL -103
- ARI +103 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 4.5 – 4.6 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1517 | 1495 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +12 | −4 | ARI: Merrill Kelly: team allows 0.62 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · MIL: Corbin Burnes: team allows 0.18 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +20 Elo | ARI 52.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 51.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 50.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ARI | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 305.1 | Runs scored | 4.126th of 30 |
| 21st of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.312th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.3 | Margin | −0.220th of 30 |
| 11th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3020–11 | Road vs home | 21–1610th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
ARI 2–1 MIL in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.