Arizona Diamondbacks at San Francisco Giants, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SF.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Evan LongoriaBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Zach DaviesPitching4.0 IP, 6 ER, 2 K
Giants- Michael ConfortoBatting3-4, 4 RBI
- Logan WebbPitching7.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Gurriel Jr. grounded into fielder's choice to third, Carroll scored, Walker out at second.5–8
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–8
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul4–8
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–8
- 5Bailey homered to left center (399 feet), Conforto scored.4–8
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–8
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 34–6
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 24–6
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 14–6
- 5Conforto doubled to right, Davis scored and Pederson scored.4–6
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–6
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 14–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul4–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging4–4
- 5Davis doubled to left, Wade Jr. scored, Pederson to third.4–4
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–4
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul4–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 14–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging4–3
- 5Carroll grounded into fielder's choice to first, Perdomo scored, Marte out at second.4–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 13–3
- 5Marte singled to right, McCarthy scored, Perdomo to third.3–3
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–3
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 22–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 12–3
- 4Walker scored on error, Thomas safe at first on throwing error by catcher Bailey, Thomas safe at second on error.2–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–3
- 3Sabol hit a ground rule double, Conforto scored.1–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
- 3Conforto doubled to center, Davis scored and Pederson scored.1–2
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 31–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 21–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 2Longoria homered to center (436 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Giants 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF 57%
- Fair odds
- SF -112
- ARI +112 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 4.6 – 4.8 SF
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1523 | 1520 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −25 | +10 | ARI: Zach Davies: team allows 1.23 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · SF: Logan Webb: team allows 0.49 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SF +50 Elo | SF 57.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 52.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 52.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ARI | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 305.2 | Runs scored | 4.97th of 30 |
| 20th of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 4.312th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.5 | Margin | +0.65th of 30 |
| 10th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 9–12nd of 30 |
| 2nd of 3023–12 | Road vs home | 21–1816th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
ARI 3–1 SF in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.