Arizona Diamondbacks at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Emmanuel RiveraBatting3-5, 1 RBI
- Zac GallenPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Brewers- Raimel TapiaBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Julio TeheranPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Rivera singled to right, Smith scored.5–1
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul4–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–1
- 8Perdomo singled to center, Moreno scored.4–1
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 23–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 13–1
- 8Moreno doubled to right, Thomas scored.3–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
- 6Thomas singled to right, Rivera scored.2–1
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging1–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 21–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 6Rivera singled to center, Smith scored on fielding error by center fielder Wiemer, Rivera to second.1–1
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–1
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball 10–1
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging0–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 5Tapia homered to right center (401 feet).0–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Brewers 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 50%
- Fair odds
- MIL -105
- ARI +105 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 4.5 – 4.6 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1519 | 1494 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | +10 | ARI: Zac Gallen: team allows 0.19 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · MIL: Julio Teheran: team allows 0.50 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +1 Elo | ARI 50.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 51.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 51.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ARI | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 305.2 | Runs scored | 4.125th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.414th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.4 | Margin | −0.323rd of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3021–12 | Road vs home | 22–1710th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
ARI 3–2 MIL in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.