Arizona Diamondbacks at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Ketel MarteBatting1-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Tommy HenryPitching6.2 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Nationals- Riley AdamsBatting3-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jake IrvinPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Adams homered to right center (404 feet), Ruiz scored.5–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–3
- 7Marte homered to right (394 feet), Thomas scored and Perdomo scored.5–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
- 4Rivera hit sacrifice fly to center, Carroll scored.2–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 3Thomas homered to left (363 feet).1–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 1Walker singled to center, Carroll to third. Carroll scored on fielding error by center fielder Hill.1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Diamondbacks 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 57%
- Fair odds
- ARI -106
- WSH +106 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 4.9 – 4.8 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1521 | 1473 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | −23 | ARI: Tommy Henry: team allows 0.37 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · WSH: Jake Irvin: team allows 1.13 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +46 Elo | ARI 56.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 50.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 51.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ARI | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 305.2 | Runs scored | 4.123rd of 30 |
| 19th of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 4.926th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.5 | Margin | −0.825th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3022–12 | Road vs home | 13–2628th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
ARI 4–1 WSH in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.