San Diego Padres at San Francisco Giants, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SF.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Gary SanchezBatting3-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Blake SnellPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 11 K
Giants- Patrick BaileyBatting2-2
- Jakob JunisPitching3.2 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 5Cruz doubled to left, Cronenworth scored and Sánchez scored.10–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play10–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging8–0
- 5Cronenworth singled to right, Machado scored, Sánchez to second.8–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play8–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 17–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking7–0
- 4Kim homered to left (381 feet).7–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play7–0
- 3Machado homered to center (443 feet), Tatis Jr. scored and Soto scored.6–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking3–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 1Sánchez homered to center (416 feet), Kim scored and Soto scored.3–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Giants 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF 56%
- Fair odds
- SF -119
- SD +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 4.0 – 4.4 SF
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1505 | 1524 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | +6 | SD: Blake Snell: team allows 0.11 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · SF: Alex Wood: team allows 0.29 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SF +40 Elo | SF 55.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 54.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 54.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SD | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.2 | Runs scored | 5.07th of 30 |
| 3rd of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 4.311th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+0.2 | Margin | +0.74th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 10–01st of 30 |
| 16th of 3016–19 | Road vs home | 21–1712th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SD 2–3 SF in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 5.