Arizona Diamondbacks at San Francisco Giants, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SF.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Ketel MarteBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Ryne NelsonPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Giants- J.D. DavisBatting2-3, 2 RBI
- Anthony DeSclafaniPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Perdomo singled to center, Longoria scored, Thomas to second.5–2
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 24–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 14–2
- 8Davis singled to center, Estrada scored.4–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–2
- 8Marte homered to right center (433 feet), McCarthy scored.4–1
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–1
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 22–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 12–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
- 6Davis singled to left, Estrada scored, Conforto to second.2–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–1
- 2McCarthy singled to right, Thomas scored.2–0
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 21–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking1–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging1–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 1Walker doubled to center, Marte scored.1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Giants 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF 53%
- Fair odds
- SF -111
- ARI +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 4.8 – 5.0 SF
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1520 | 1523 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | −7 | ARI: Ryne Nelson: team allows 0.36 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · SF: Anthony DeSclafani: team allows 0.33 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SF +21 Elo | SF 53.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 52.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 52.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ARI | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 305.2 | Runs scored | 5.08th of 30 |
| 23rd of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.414th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.4 | Margin | +0.65th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 30 |
| 2nd of 3023–14 | Road vs home | 23–1810th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
ARI 3–3 SF in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 6.