Kansas City Royals at Tampa Bay Rays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TB.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Salvador PerezBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Zack GreinkePitching4.2 IP, 7 ER, 3 K
Rays- Jose SiriBatting3-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Zach EflinPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 8Ramírez singled to center, Arozarena scored, J. Lowe to third.3–11
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–11
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–10
- 8Arozarena singled to right, Margot scored.3–10
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–10
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–9
- 8Margot doubled to center, Siri scored.3–9
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–9
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging3–8
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–8
- 5Bethancourt doubled to center, Paredes scored, Walls to third.3–8
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–8
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking3–7
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 23–7
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 13–7
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–7
- 5Walls singled to left, J. Lowe scored and Ramírez scored, Paredes to second.3–7
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–7
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking3–5
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 23–5
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 13–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–5
- 5Ramírez singled to center, Margot scored, J. Lowe to second.3–5
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–5
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 23–4
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 13–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul3–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–4
- 4Siri singled to center, Bethancourt scored.3–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–4
- 3Perez homered to center (423 feet), Witt Jr. scored.3–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–3
- 2Siri homered to left (394 feet), Paredes scored and Bethancourt scored.1–3
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–3
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 21–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 1Pratto homered to right (372 feet).1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rays 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 68%
- Fair odds
- TB -149
- KC +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 4.2 – 5.1 TB
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1441 | 1553 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | +10 | KC: Zack Greinke: team allows 0.29 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · TB: Zach Eflin: team allows 0.50 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +134 Elo | TB 68.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 58.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 59.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| KC | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 303.8 | Runs scored | 5.62nd of 30 |
| 28th of 305.3 | Runs allowed | 3.71st of 30 |
| 29th of 30−1.6 | Margin | +1.92nd of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 29th of 3011–26 | Road vs home | 32–91st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
KC 1–0 TB in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.