Baltimore Orioles at Tampa Bay Rays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TB.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Aaron HicksBatting2-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Kyle BradishPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 8 K
Rays- Manuel MargotBatting1-2, 2 RBI
- Tyler GlasnowPitching4.1 IP, 6 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 8Hicks singled to center, Hays scored.8–6
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play8–6
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 17–6
- 6Margot singled to left, Díaz scored and Walls scored, Franco to third.7–6
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play7–6
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul7–4
- 6Díaz singled to right, Paredes scored, Walls to third.7–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play7–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking7–3
- 6Paredes singled to left, Ramírez scored.7–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play7–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking7–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 17–2
- 5Franco reached on infield single to shortstop, Mejía scored.7–2
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball In Play7–2
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball 37–1
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul7–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 27–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 17–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking7–1
- 5Mejía doubled to center, Paredes scored.7–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play7–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul7–0
- 5O'Hearn homered to right (397 feet).7–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play7–0
- 2Santander homered to right (405 feet), Rutschman scored.6–0
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play6–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul4–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking4–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 14–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–0
- 1Hicks homered to right (377 feet), Santander scored and Hays scored.4–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 1Santander singled to left, Henderson scored.1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rays 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 56%
- Fair odds
- TB -117
- BAL +117 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 4.6 – 4.9 TB
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1523 | 1554 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | −2 | BAL: Kyle Bradish: team allows 0.34 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · TB: Tyler Glasnow: team allows 0.10 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +39 Elo | TB 55.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 53.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 53.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BAL | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 5.52nd of 30 |
| 14th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 3.61st of 30 |
| 6th of 30+0.5 | Margin | +1.92nd of 30 |
| 6th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 4th of 3022–14 | Road vs home | 31–71st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
BAL 2–1 TB in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.