Kansas City Royals at Tampa Bay Rays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TB.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Drew WatersBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Austin CoxPitching3.2 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Rays- Randy ArozarenaBatting3-5, 3 RBI
- Shane McClanahanPitching3.2 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Melendez reached on infield single to first, Garcia scored.6–5
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–5
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 15–5
- 8Waters singled to right, Melendez scored and Perez scored, S. Taylor to third.5–5
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–5
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 13–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking3–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–5
- 7Arozarena singled to center, Bruján scored and Díaz scored.3–5
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul3–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–3
- 7Mejía homered to right center (395 feet).3–3
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking3–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 13–2
- 7Waters homered to right (386 feet).3–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–2
- 3Melendez singled to left, Garcia scored, Witt Jr. to second.2–2
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 11–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking1–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–2
- 3Garcia singled to center, Blanco scored.1–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–2
- 1Paredes hit sacrifice fly to left, Raley scored.0–2
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 30–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 20–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 1Arozarena singled to right, Díaz scored, Raley advances to third, Arozarena safe at second on throwing error by right fielder Melendez.0–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rays 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 70%
- Fair odds
- TB -153
- KC +153 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 4.1 – 5.0 TB
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1440 | 1554 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | +20 | KC: Jose Cuas (no track record yet) · TB: Shane McClanahan: team allows 1.02 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +150 Elo | TB 70.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 58.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 60.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| KC | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 303.7 | Runs scored | 5.62nd of 30 |
| 28th of 305.3 | Runs allowed | 3.71st of 30 |
| 29th of 30−1.6 | Margin | +1.92nd of 30 |
| 26th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 29th of 3010–26 | Road vs home | 32–81st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.