Baltimore Orioles at Tampa Bay Rays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TB.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Gunnar HendersonBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Tyler WellsPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Rays- Randy ArozarenaBatting3-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Taj BradleyPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 9Henderson homered to center (437 feet).2–7
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–7
- 8Díaz singled to right, Margot scored, Siri to second.1–7
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–7
- 7Arozarena singled to center, Díaz scored.1–6
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–6
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 11–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–5
- 7Franco hit sacrifice fly to center, Siri scored, Díaz to second.1–5
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–5
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 11–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking1–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–4
- 3Urías homered to center (416 feet).1–4
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–4
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 20–4
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–4
- 2Siri reached on infield single to pitcher, Margot scored and Walls scored on throwing error by pitcher Wells, Siri to second.0–4
- 2Pitch 7 : Ball In Play0–4
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball 20–2
- 2Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 10–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging0–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–2
- 2Paredes homered to left (339 feet).0–2
- 2Pitch 7 : Ball In Play0–2
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball 30–1
- 2Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 20–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking0–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 2Arozarena homered to left center (402 feet).0–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rays 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 54%
- Fair odds
- TB -114
- BAL +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 4.6 – 4.9 TB
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1525 | 1552 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | −15 | BAL: Tyler Wells: team allows 0.25 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · TB: Taj Bradley: team allows 0.74 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +25 Elo | TB 53.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 53.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 53.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BAL | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 5.52nd of 30 |
| 15th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 3.71st of 30 |
| 6th of 30+0.6 | Margin | +1.92nd of 30 |
| 5th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–615th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3023–14 | Road vs home | 31–81st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
BAL 3–1 TB in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.