Kansas City Royals at Tampa Bay Rays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TB.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Maikel GarciaBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Daniel Lynch IVPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Rays- Jose SiriBatting1-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Tyler GlasnowPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 12 K
Scoring summary
- 7Ramírez hit sacrifice fly to center, Díaz scored.1–3
- 7Pitch 9 : Ball In Play1–3
- 7Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul1–2
- 7Siri scored on Clarke wild pitch, Franco to second on wild pitch by Clarke, Díaz to third on wild pitch by Clarke.1–2
- 7Siri scored on Clarke wild pitch, Franco to second on wild pitch by Clarke, Díaz to third on wild pitch by Clarke.1–2
- 7Pitch 7 : Ball 21–1
- 7Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 11–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–3
- 4Garcia singled to center, Witt Jr. scored.1–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 3Siri homered to left (415 feet).0–1
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–1
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball 20–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 10–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging0–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rays 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 64%
- Fair odds
- TB -145
- KC +145 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 4.5 – 5.3 TB
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1443 | 1551 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +13 | −11 | KC: Daniel Lynch IV: team allows 0.63 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) · TB: Tyler Glasnow: team allows 0.54 more runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +102 Elo | TB 64.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 58.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 59.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| KC | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 303.8 | Runs scored | 5.62nd of 30 |
| 28th of 305.4 | Runs allowed | 3.81st of 30 |
| 28th of 30−1.6 | Margin | +1.82nd of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 29th of 3012–27 | Road vs home | 33–101st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
KC 2–1 TB in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.