Kansas City Royals at Tampa Bay Rays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TB.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Freddy FerminBatting3-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Jordan LylesPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 2 K
Rays- Wander FrancoBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Yonny ChirinosPitching5.1 IP, 8 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Olivares homered to left (383 feet).9–4
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball In Play9–4
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul8–4
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul8–4
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 28–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul8–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 18–4
- 6Pratto grounded out to second, Olivares scored, Fermin to second, Lopez to third.8–4
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play8–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 17–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking7–4
- 4Witt Jr. doubled to left, Pratto scored.7–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play7–4
- 4Fermin homered to left (372 feet), Olivares scored and Waters scored.6–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–4
- 3Witt Jr. hit sacrifice fly to center, Fermin scored.3–4
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–4
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 22–4
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–4
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul2–4
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 12–4
- 3Pratto grounded out to third, Lopez scored, Fermin to third.2–4
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–4
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–4
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 11–4
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–4
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–4
- 3Waters homered to center (415 feet).1–4
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–4
- 2Raley singled to right, Díaz scored, Franco to third.0–4
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–4
- 2Franco singled to center, Bruján scored, Díaz to third.0–3
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–3
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–3
- 1J. Lowe doubled to left, Arozarena scored.0–2
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 1Franco homered to center (417 feet).0–1
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rays 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 70%
- Fair odds
- TB -152
- KC +152 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 4.3 – 5.2 TB
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1439 | 1555 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −19 | −6 | KC: Jordan Lyles: team allows 0.95 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · TB: Yonny Chirinos: team allows 0.30 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +146 Elo | TB 69.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 58.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 60.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| KC | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 303.8 | Runs scored | 5.62nd of 30 |
| 28th of 305.4 | Runs allowed | 3.71st of 30 |
| 29th of 30−1.6 | Margin | +1.92nd of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–59th of 30 |
| 29th of 3011–27 | Road vs home | 33–91st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
KC 1–1 TB in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.