Tampa Bay Rays at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Jose SiriBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Taj BradleyPitching4.0 IP, 7 ER, 2 K
Diamondbacks- Corbin CarrollBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Zac GallenPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 6Perdomo hit sacrifice fly to center, Moreno scored.4–8
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–8
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 14–7
- 4Marte homered to right center (424 feet).4–7
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–7
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Foul4–6
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 34–6
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 24–6
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 14–6
- 3Longoria homered to left (436 feet).4–6
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–6
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 24–5
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 14–5
- 2Siri homered to left center (386 feet).4–5
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–5
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul3–5
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 13–5
- 2Bethancourt grounded out to shortstop, Raley scored.3–5
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–5
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging2–5
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 22–5
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 12–5
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–5
- 2Paredes scored on Gallen wild pitch, Raley to third on wild pitch by Gallen.2–5
- 2Paredes scored on Gallen wild pitch, Raley to third on wild pitch by Gallen.2–5
- 2Arozarena scored on Gallen wild pitch, Raley to second, Paredes to third.1–5
- 2Arozarena scored on Gallen wild pitch, Raley to second on wild pitch by Gallen, Paredes to third on wild pitch by Gallen.1–5
- 1Moreno hit sacrifice fly to left, Longoria scored, Thomas to third.0–5
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–5
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 20–4
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–4
- 1Walker homered to left center (383 feet).0–4
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–4
- 1Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–3
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–3
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking0–3
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–3
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–3
- 1Carroll homered to center (437 feet), Perdomo scored and Marte scored.0–3
- 1Pitch 7 : Ball In Play0–3
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Diamondbacks 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 51%
- Fair odds
- ARI -106
- TB +106 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 4.6 – 4.7 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1552 | 1522 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −10 | +10 | TB: Taj Bradley: team allows 0.50 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · ARI: Zac Gallen: team allows 0.48 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +8 Elo | ARI 51.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 51.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 51.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TB | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 305.6 | Runs scored | 5.25th of 30 |
| 1st of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 4.721st of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+1.9 | Margin | +0.58th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 6th of 3020–17 | Road vs home | 23–1812th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.