Washington Nationals at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- Dominic SmithBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- MacKenzie GorePitching2.2 IP, 7 ER, 3 K
Phillies- Alec BohmBatting4-5, 2 HR, 6 RBI
- Zack WheelerPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 5Schwarber homered to right center (383 feet), Harrison scored, Bohm scored and Pache scored.4–19
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–19
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking4–15
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 14–15
- 5Bohm singled to center, Realmuto scored, Harrison to second.4–15
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–15
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 14–14
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul4–14
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging4–14
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–14
- 5Realmuto grounded into fielder's choice to third, Castellanos scored, Harper out at second.4–14
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–14
- 5Harper singled to left, Turner scored, Castellanos to third.4–13
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–13
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging4–12
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 14–12
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–12
- 5Castellanos doubled to center, Schwarber scored, Turner to third.4–12
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–12
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–11
- 5García doubled to right, Thomas scored.4–11
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–11
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 13–11
- 5Thomas singled to right, Abrams scored.3–11
- 5Pitch 7 : Ball In Play3–11
- 5Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul2–11
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball 32–11
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–11
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 22–11
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 12–11
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–11
- 5Abrams tripled to right, Vargas scored.2–11
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–11
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 11–11
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–11
- 4Bohm homered to left center (365 feet), Harrison scored.1–11
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–11
- 4Castellanos homered to center (411 feet), Turner scored.1–9
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–9
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–7
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Phillies 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 56%
- Fair odds
- PHI -122
- WSH +122 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 4.1 – 4.5 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1478 | 1506 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | +3 | WSH: MacKenzie Gore: team allows 0.25 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · PHI: Zack Wheeler: team allows 0.17 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +44 Elo | PHI 56.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 54.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 54.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| WSH | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.419th of 30 |
| 25th of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 4.515th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−0.8 | Margin | −0.117th of 30 |
| 3rd of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–43rd of 30 |
| 17th of 3020–21 | Road vs home | 21–157th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
WSH 2–2 PHI in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 4.