New York Mets at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Pete AlonsoBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Carlos CarrascoPitching4.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Phillies- Trea TurnerBatting2-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Zack WheelerPitching5.1 IP, 5 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 8Turner hit by pitch, Bohm scored, Schwarber to second, Marsh to third.6–7
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play6–7
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul6–6
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul6–6
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 26–6
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 16–7
- 8Schwarber hit by pitch, Stott scored, Marsh to second, Bohm to third.6–6
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play6–6
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 26–5
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 16–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking6–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–5
- 8Marsh walked, Realmuto scored, Bohm to second, Stott to third.6–5
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball 46–5
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking6–4
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 36–4
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 26–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul6–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 16–5
- 8Bohm grounded into fielder's choice to third, Harper scored, Stott safe at second on throwing error by third baseman Baty, Realmuto to third.6–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 16–3
- 7Alonso homered to right (383 feet).6–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking5–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 15–3
- 6Marte grounded out to third, Narváez scored, Nimmo to second.5–3
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul4–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 24–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 14–3
- 5Turner scored on throwing error by catcher Narváez.4–3
- 5Turner scored on throwing error by catcher Narváez.4–3
- 5Lindor homered to right (386 feet).4–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–2
- 4Nimmo singled to right, Baty scored, Narváez to third.3–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 3Turner singled to left, Sosa scored, Schwarber to second.2–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Phillies 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 56%
- Fair odds
- PHI -117
- NYM +117 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 4.2 – 4.5 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1489 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | +8 | NYM: Carlos Carrasco: team allows 0.29 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · PHI: Zack Wheeler: team allows 0.42 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +42 Elo | PHI 56.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 53.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 53.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYM | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.318th of 30 |
| 20th of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 4.617th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.2 | Margin | −0.220th of 30 |
| 21st of 304–6 | Last 10 | 7–35th of 30 |
| 25th of 3018–26 | Road vs home | 20–147th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NYM 4–1 PHI in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.