New York Mets at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Brandon NimmoBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Kodai SengaPitching5.1 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Phillies- Brandon MarshBatting3-4, 1 RBI
- Taijuan WalkerPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 6Turner singled to left, Bohm scored and Marsh scored, Schwarber to second.1–5
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–5
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging1–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 21–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 11–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–3
- 6Marsh singled to left, Stott scored, Bohm to second.1–3
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–3
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 31–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 21–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 11–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Bunted Foul1–2
- 3Nimmo homered to right center (405 feet).1–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 10–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–2
- 1Stott hit sacrifice fly to center, Turner scored, Harper to third.0–2
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 1Harper singled to left, Schwarber scored, Turner to second.0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Phillies 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 54%
- Fair odds
- PHI -116
- NYM +116 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 4.2 – 4.5 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1490 | 1499 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +11 | +12 | NYM: Kodai Senga: team allows 0.53 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · PHI: Taijuan Walker: team allows 0.61 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +29 Elo | PHI 54.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 53.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 53.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYM | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.419th of 30 |
| 23rd of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.617th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.2 | Margin | −0.322nd of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 7–35th of 30 |
| 26th of 3017–25 | Road vs home | 19–136th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NYM 3–0 PHI in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.