Washington Nationals at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- Jeimer CandelarioBatting3-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- MacKenzie GorePitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 9 K
Padres- Ha-Seong KimBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Seth LugoPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Soto singled to left, Dixon scored, Kim to third.8–3
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play8–3
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 28–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking8–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 18–2
- 7Kim homered to left (380 feet).8–2
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play8–2
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 28–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul8–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking8–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 18–1
- 7Meneses doubled to left, Candelario scored and García scored.8–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play8–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging6–1
- 7Candelario doubled to center, Abrams scored and Thomas scored, García to third.6–1
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul4–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 14–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–1
- 7Thomas singled to center, Hill scored, Thomas to second, Abrams to third.4–1
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul3–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 23–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 13–1
- 6Garrett sacrificed into double play, right to first to shortstop, Candelario scored, Meneses thrown out at second.3–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 6Meneses singled to center, García scored, Candelario to third.2–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 11–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 5Tatis Jr. singled to right, Grisham scored, Kim to third.1–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 1Candelario homered to right center (427 feet).1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Padres 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 58%
- Fair odds
- SD -121
- WSH +121 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 3.8 – 4.2 SD
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1470 | 1510 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | +2 | WSH: MacKenzie Gore: team allows 0.08 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · SD: Seth Lugo: team allows 0.09 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +58 Elo | SD 58.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 54.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 54.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| WSH | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.320th of 30 |
| 26th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 3.82nd of 30 |
| 26th of 30−0.9 | Margin | +0.58th of 30 |
| 26th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 20th of 3016–20 | Road vs home | 18–2125th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
WSH 2–3 SD in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.