Washington Nationals at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- Michael ChavisBatting1-1, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Patrick CorbinPitching5.0 IP, 7 ER, 3 K
Padres- Ha-Seong KimBatting2-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Joe MusgrovePitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9Abrams doubled to center, Hill scored.3–13
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–13
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 12–13
- 9Chavis homered to left center (378 feet).2–13
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–13
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–13
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 21–13
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 11–13
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–13
- 8Soto homered to right center (414 feet), Tatis Jr. scored.1–13
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–13
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 31–11
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking1–11
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 21–11
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 11–11
- 7Grisham hit a ground rule double, Cronenworth scored, Cruz to third.1–11
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–11
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–10
- 7Cruz singled to center, Soto scored and Sánchez scored, Cronenworth to third.1–10
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–10
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 11–8
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–8
- 7Soto doubled to center, Tatis Jr. scored.1–8
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–8
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 11–7
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–7
- 6Meneses singled to left, Candelario scored.1–7
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–7
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 10–7
- 5Bogaerts homered to left center (404 feet), Tatis Jr. scored and Machado scored.0–7
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–7
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 10–4
- 5Machado grounded into fielder's choice to second, Kim scored, Soto out at second, Tatis Jr. to third.0–4
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–4
- 5Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Swinging0–3
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 30–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 20–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 10–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–3
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Padres 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 58%
- Fair odds
- SD -121
- WSH +121 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 3.7 – 4.1 SD
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1471 | 1509 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | −1 | WSH: Patrick Corbin: team allows 0.18 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · SD: Joe Musgrove: team allows 0.07 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +58 Elo | SD 58.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 54.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 54.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| WSH | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.321st of 30 |
| 26th of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 3.92nd of 30 |
| 25th of 30−0.8 | Margin | +0.49th of 30 |
| 27th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 5–510th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3015–19 | Road vs home | 17–2025th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
WSH 1–2 SD in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.