Washington Nationals at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- Lane ThomasBatting3-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Josiah GrayPitching5.1 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Padres- Fernando Tatis Jr.Batting1-4
- Matt WaldronPitching4.2 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 3Thomas homered to left center (396 feet).2–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Candelario homered to right center (395 feet).1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Padres 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 56%
- Fair odds
- SD -120
- WSH +120 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 3.9 – 4.3 SD
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1468 | 1512 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | −12 | WSH: Josiah Gray: team allows 0.32 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · SD: Matt Waldron (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | SD +43 Elo | SD 56.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 54.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 54.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| WSH | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.418th of 30 |
| 26th of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 3.92nd of 30 |
| 26th of 30−0.9 | Margin | +0.57th of 30 |
| 27th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 24th of 3015–20 | Road vs home | 18–2024th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
WSH 1–3 SD in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.