Philadelphia Phillies at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Brandon MarshBatting2-3, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Ranger SuarezPitching7.1 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Cubs- Nico HoernerBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Jameson TaillonPitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 8Hoerner singled to right, Bellinger scored, Madrigal to second.5–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–1
- 5Castellanos singled to right, Clemens scored, Stubbs to third.5–0
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 14–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul4–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–0
- 5Marsh homered to right center (411 feet), Stott scored.4–0
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 12–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 2Marsh homered to right center (418 feet).2–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 1Turner singled to right, Schwarber scored, Turner thrown out at second.1–0
- 1Pitch 7 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball 30–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Cubs 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 51%
- Fair odds
- CHC -108
- PHI +108 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 4.3 – 4.5 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1500 | 1505 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | −19 | PHI: Ranger Suarez: team allows 0.11 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · CHC: Jameson Taillon: team allows 0.95 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +6 Elo | CHC 50.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 52.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 51.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PHI | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.611th of 30 |
| 17th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.211th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.2 | Margin | +0.49th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 30 |
| 17th of 3019–23 | Road vs home | 20–1716th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
PHI 2–1 CHC in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.