Washington Nationals at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- Lane ThomasBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Trevor WilliamsPitching4.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Mariners- J.P. CrawfordBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Luis CastilloPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9Thomas hit a ground rule double, Ruiz scored, Smith to third.4–8
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–8
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–8
- 8Hernández hit sacrifice fly to center, Rodríguez scored.3–8
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–8
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging3–7
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 13–7
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–7
- 8France singled to right, Crawford scored, Rodríguez to third.3–7
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–7
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–6
- 5Wong doubled to center, Ford scored.3–6
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–6
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 13–5
- 5Ford singled to center, Kelenic scored.3–5
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–5
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 23–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking3–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 13–4
- 5Suárez hit sacrifice fly to right, Hernández scored.3–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–3
- 4Rodríguez singled to center, Kelenic scored, Crawford to third.3–3
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 13–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–2
- 4Suárez homered to left (387 feet).3–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–1
- 3García singled to center, Abrams scored.3–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–1
- 2Smith homered to right (374 feet).2–1
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–1
- 2Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging1–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 21–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 11–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 1Crawford homered to right (355 feet).1–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Mariners 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 59%
- Fair odds
- SEA -121
- WSH +121 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 4.0 – 4.4 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1474 | 1508 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | +11 | WSH: Trevor Williams: team allows 0.11 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · SEA: Luis Castillo: team allows 0.53 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +60 Elo | SEA 58.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 54.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 54.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| WSH | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.516th of 30 |
| 26th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 4.28th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−0.8 | Margin | +0.313th of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 17th of 3017–20 | Road vs home | 21–1712th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.