Seattle Mariners at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Cal RaleighBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- George KirbyPitching6.1 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Orioles- Anthony SantanderBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Kyle BradishPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 5Bemboom reached on infield single to second, Mateo scored on fielding error by second baseman Caballero, Bemboom to second.2–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–2
- 3Santander homered to right (390 feet), Mateo scored.2–2
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–2
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 22–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging2–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 2Raleigh homered to right (422 feet), Suárez scored.2–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 10–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Orioles 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 54%
- Fair odds
- BAL -119
- SEA +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 4.5 – 4.9 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1509 | 1520 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | +2 | SEA: George Kirby: team allows 0.27 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · BAL: Kyle Bradish: team allows 0.10 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +26 Elo | BAL 53.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 54.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 54.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SEA | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.910th of 30 |
| 9th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.616th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.3 | Margin | +0.312th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 23rd of 3016–21 | Road vs home | 23–144th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SEA 1–1 BAL in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.