Seattle Mariners at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Mike FordBatting2-4, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Bryce MillerPitching4.1 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Orioles- Anthony SantanderBatting4-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Dean KremerPitching7.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 10McKenna homered to right center (393 feet), Mullins scored.4–6
- 10Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–6
- 10Pitch 3 : Ball 24–4
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball 14–4
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–4
- 9Ford homered to right center (434 feet).4–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–4
- 6Hicks homered to center (426 feet).3–4
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 13–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–3
- 6Rodríguez homered to center (395 feet).3–3
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging3–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 12–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–3
- 5Santander singled to right, Frazier scored, Santander thrown out at second, Rutschman to third.2–3
- 5Pitch 7 : Ball In Play2–3
- 5Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul2–2
- 5Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–2
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 22–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 12–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–2
- 3Santander homered to center (415 feet).2–2
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–2
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 22–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 3Crawford homered to right (354 feet).2–1
- 3Pitch 7 : Ball In Play2–1
- 3Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball 31–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 21–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging1–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 3Ford homered to right (379 feet).1–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Orioles 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 53%
- Fair odds
- BAL -117
- SEA +117 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 4.4 – 4.8 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1510 | 1519 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | −9 | SEA: Bryce Miller: team allows 0.19 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · BAL: Dean Kremer: team allows 0.46 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +21 Elo | BAL 53.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 54.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 54.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SEA | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.99th of 30 |
| 8th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.616th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.4 | Margin | +0.313th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–510th of 30 |
| 21st of 3016–20 | Road vs home | 22–145th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SEA 1–0 BAL in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.