Seattle Mariners at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Teoscar HernandezBatting3-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Logan GilbertPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Orioles- Anthony SantanderBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Kyle GibsonPitching3.0 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Suárez singled to center, Hernández scored and Raleigh scored.13–1
- 8Pitch 7 : Ball In Play13–1
- 8Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul11–1
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul11–1
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 211–1
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul11–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 111–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking11–1
- 8Raleigh singled to center, France scored on error, Raleigh safe at second on throwing error by center fielder Hicks, Hernández safe at third on error.11–1
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball In Play11–1
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul10–1
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking10–1
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 310–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 210–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 110–1
- 8Hernández singled to left, Rodríguez scored, France to third.10–1
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball In Play10–1
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul9–1
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking9–1
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking9–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 29–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 19–1
- 8France singled to left, Kelenic scored, Rodríguez to second.9–1
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play9–1
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul8–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 18–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul8–1
- 8Rodríguez singled to right, Caballero scored, Kelenic to third.8–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play8–1
- 8Kelenic singled to left, Suárez scored, Caballero to third.7–1
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball In Play7–1
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball 26–1
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul6–1
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 17–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul6–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–1
- 7Santander homered to right center (386 feet).6–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking6–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 16–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Orioles 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 55%
- Fair odds
- BAL -119
- SEA +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 4.2 – 4.6 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1506 | 1523 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | +5 | SEA: Logan Gilbert: team allows 0.36 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · BAL: Kyle Gibson: team allows 0.25 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +33 Elo | BAL 54.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 54.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 54.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SEA | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.97th of 30 |
| 9th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.515th of 30 |
| 15th of 30+0.2 | Margin | +0.58th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 24th of 3015–20 | Road vs home | 22–133rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.