Philadelphia Phillies at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Kyle SchwarberBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Taijuan WalkerPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Cubs- Nico HoernerBatting2-4
- Kyle HendricksPitching7.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 3Harper singled to center, Clemens scored and Turner scored.3–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 11–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 2Young tripled to right, Bellinger scored.1–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–1
- 1Schwarber homered to right (391 feet).1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Cubs 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 50%
- Fair odds
- CHC -106
- PHI +106 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 4.4 – 4.5 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1505 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +14 | +2 | PHI: Taijuan Walker: team allows 0.70 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · CHC: Kyle Hendricks: team allows 0.09 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +1 Elo | CHC 50.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 51.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 51.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PHI | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.612th of 30 |
| 15th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.313th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.1 | Margin | +0.311th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 15th of 3021–23 | Road vs home | 20–1918th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
PHI 4–1 CHC in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.