Philadelphia Phillies at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Nick CastellanosBatting2-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Aaron NolaPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Cubs- Dansby SwansonBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Hayden WesneskiPitching4.1 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Amaya scored, Madrigal to third on passed ball by Realmuto.8–5
- 9Amaya scored, Madrigal to third on passed ball by Realmuto.8–5
- 5Happ grounded out to second, Tauchman scored, Morel to second, Hoerner to third.8–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play8–4
- 5Morel walked, Madrigal scored, Hoerner to second, Tauchman to third.8–3
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball 48–3
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball 38–2
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 28–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 18–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging8–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking8–2
- 5Harrison homered to left (374 feet).8–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play8–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 27–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 17–2
- 4Swanson homered to left (395 feet).7–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play7–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging7–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 17–1
- 4Harper singled to center, Castellanos scored.7–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play7–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging6–1
- 4Castellanos doubled to center, Schwarber scored.6–1
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play6–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 25–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul5–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 15–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul5–1
- 3Young homered to right center (425 feet).5–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking5–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–0
- 2Castellanos homered to left (367 feet), Pache scored and Turner scored.5–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–0
- 2Sosa homered to left center (376 feet), Harrison scored.2–0
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking0–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Cubs 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 55%
- Fair odds
- CHC -109
- PHI +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 4.2 – 4.4 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1503 | 1503 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −10 | +6 | PHI: Aaron Nola: team allows 0.49 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · CHC: Drew Smyly: team allows 0.28 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +33 Elo | CHC 54.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 51.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 52.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PHI | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.612th of 30 |
| 16th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.211th of 30 |
| 18th of 30−0.2 | Margin | +0.49th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 17th of 3020–23 | Road vs home | 20–1817th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
PHI 3–1 CHC in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.