Washington Nationals at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- Stone GarrettBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Josiah GrayPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Phillies- Alec BohmBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Cristopher SanchezPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 2Bohm singled to left, Stott scored.2–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 22–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 2Garrett homered to left (363 feet), Ruiz scored.2–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Phillies 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 55%
- Fair odds
- PHI -122
- WSH +122 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 4.1 – 4.5 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1477 | 1507 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +14 | +4 | WSH: Josiah Gray: team allows 0.72 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · PHI: Cristopher Sanchez: team allows 0.18 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +37 Elo | PHI 55.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 54.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 54.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| WSH | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.418th of 30 |
| 25th of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 4.515th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−0.8 | Margin | −0.118th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 16th of 3019–21 | Road vs home | 21–148th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
WSH 1–2 PHI in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.