Washington Nationals at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- Keibert RuizBatting2-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jake IrvinPitching5.2 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Mariners- Teoscar HernandezBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Bryan WooPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 11García singled to center, Thomas scored, García out stretching at second.7–4
- 11Pitch 3 : Ball In Play7–4
- 11Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking6–4
- 11Pitch 1 : Ball 16–4
- 11Thomas doubled to right, Chavis scored and Vargas scored.6–4
- 11Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–4
- 11Pitch 1 : Ball 14–4
- 8Ruiz homered to right (356 feet).4–4
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul3–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 13–4
- 7Wong grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Kelenic scored, Moore out at second.3–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–3
- 7García hit sacrifice fly to center, Abrams scored.3–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–3
- 5Candelario doubled to left, Thomas scored.2–3
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–3
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 22–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 12–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–3
- 4Suárez hit sacrifice fly to left, France scored.1–3
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–3
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–2
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 21–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 11–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging1–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–2
- 1Hernández homered to right center (393 feet), France scored.1–2
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 1Candelario scored on error.1–0
- 1Candelario scored on error.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Mariners 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 59%
- Fair odds
- SEA -122
- WSH +122 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 3.9 – 4.4 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1472 | 1510 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −19 | −10 | WSH: Jake Irvin: team allows 0.96 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · SEA: Bryan Woo: team allows 0.50 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +65 Elo | SEA 59.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 54.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 55.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| WSH | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.513th of 30 |
| 26th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 4.210th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−0.9 | Margin | +0.410th of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 19th of 3017–21 | Road vs home | 22–1711th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
WSH 0–1 SEA in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.