Washington Nationals at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- Keibert RuizBatting2-3, 2 RBI
- Patrick CorbinPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 9 K
Mariners- Jose CaballeroBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Logan GilbertPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Caballero homered to left (360 feet).4–1
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–1
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 24–0
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 14–0
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging4–0
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–0
- 6Vargas doubled to left, Smith scored.4–0
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 13–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–0
- 1Ruiz singled to center, García scored and Candelario scored.3–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 1Candelario doubled to right, Thomas scored, García to third.1–0
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball 30–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging0–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Mariners 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 61%
- Fair odds
- SEA -123
- WSH +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 4.0 – 4.4 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1474 | 1507 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −14 | +10 | WSH: Patrick Corbin: team allows 0.70 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · SEA: Logan Gilbert: team allows 0.51 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +75 Elo | SEA 60.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 54.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 55.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| WSH | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.513th of 30 |
| 26th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 4.210th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−0.8 | Margin | +0.312th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 17th of 3018–21 | Road vs home | 22–1812th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
WSH 1–1 SEA in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.