Tampa Bay Rays at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Isaac ParedesBatting2-2, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Taj BradleyPitching3.1 IP, 5 ER, 3 K
Mariners- Tom MurphyBatting2-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Luis CastilloPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 7Caballero hit by pitch, Hernández scored, Murphy to second, Suárez to third.6–7
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–7
- 6Murphy homered to left center (422 feet).6–6
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play6–6
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 36–5
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul6–5
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 26–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 16–5
- 3Ford singled to center, Hernández scored and Kelenic scored.6–5
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–5
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–5
- 3Kelenic doubled to left, France scored, Hernández to third.6–3
- 3Pitch 7 : Ball In Play6–3
- 3Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul6–4
- 3Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul6–4
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking6–4
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 26–4
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 16–4
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging6–4
- 3France doubled to left, Rodríguez scored.6–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul6–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul6–1
- 3Paredes reached on infield single to shortstop, Raley scored, Ramírez to second.6–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging5–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul5–1
- 3Raley doubled to right, Arozarena scored and J. Lowe scored.5–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–1
- 3Franco hit sacrifice fly to left, Bruján scored.3–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 22–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 2Suárez homered to center (397 feet).2–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging2–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 2Paredes homered to left (349 feet).2–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rays 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 51%
- Fair odds
- TB -102
- SEA +102 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 4.7 – 4.6 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1553 | 1504 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −16 | +9 | TB: Taj Bradley: team allows 0.78 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · SEA: Luis Castillo: team allows 0.43 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +7 Elo | TB 51.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 50.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 50.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TB | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.6 | Runs scored | 4.515th of 30 |
| 1st of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 4.313th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+1.8 | Margin | +0.215th of 30 |
| 3rd of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–622nd of 30 |
| 8th of 3023–19 | Road vs home | 23–2015th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TB 1–1 SEA in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.