Tampa Bay Rays at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Luke RaleyBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Tyler GlasnowPitching5.2 IP, 3 ER, 11 K
Mariners- J.P. CrawfordBatting3-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- George KirbyPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 8Rodríguez singled to left, Caballero scored, Crawford to second.3–8
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–8
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 13–7
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–7
- 8Crawford singled to right, Moore scored, Caballero to third.3–7
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–7
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–6
- 8Franco reached on infield single to shortstop, Bethancourt scored, Díaz to second.3–6
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–6
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 12–6
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging2–6
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–6
- 7Suárez hit sacrifice fly to center, France scored, Hernández to third.2–6
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–6
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking2–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 22–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 12–5
- 7Hernández hit a ground rule double, Crawford scored and Rodríguez scored, France to third.2–5
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–5
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 12–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking2–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–3
- 6Kelenic singled to left, Hernández scored, Suárez to second.2–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–2
- 6Raley homered to right (355 feet), Díaz scored.2–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–2
- 3Crawford homered to right center (385 feet).0–2
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 20–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 2Ford singled to center, Kelenic scored.0–1
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging0–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rays 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 54%
- Fair odds
- TB -104
- SEA +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 4.7 – 4.6 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1556 | 1501 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | +6 | TB: Tyler Glasnow: team allows 0.18 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · SEA: George Kirby: team allows 0.28 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +27 Elo | TB 53.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 50.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 51.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TB | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.6 | Runs scored | 4.516th of 30 |
| 1st of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 4.313th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+1.9 | Margin | +0.116th of 30 |
| 3rd of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 30 |
| 6th of 3023–18 | Road vs home | 22–2016th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TB 1–0 SEA in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.