Tampa Bay Rays at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Randy ArozarenaBatting2-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Shane McClanahanPitching3.0 IP, 4 ER, 1 K
Mariners- Tom MurphyBatting1-2, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Bryce MillerPitching3.1 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Franco grounded out to first, Bethancourt scored.15–4
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play15–4
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking14–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking14–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 114–4
- 9Bruján grounded out to first, Walls scored, Bethancourt to third.14–4
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play14–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking13–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking13–4
- 9Siri homered to left center (373 feet).13–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play13–4
- 8Arozarena grounded into fielder's choice to pitcher, Franco scored, Raley out at second.12–4
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play12–4
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking11–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 211–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 111–4
- 8Franco doubled to left, Díaz scored.11–4
- 8Pitch 7 : Ball In Play11–4
- 8Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul10–4
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul10–4
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 210–4
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 110–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging10–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking10–4
- 8Díaz singled to right, Bethancourt scored.10–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play10–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 19–4
- 8Bethancourt doubled to left, Walls scored.9–4
- 8Pitch 7 : Ball In Play9–4
- 8Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul8–4
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball 38–4
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 28–4
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 18–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging8–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul8–4
- 8Walls singled to left, J. Lowe scored, Walls to second.8–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play8–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 17–4
- 8Siri hit sacrifice fly to left, Paredes scored.7–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play7–4
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rays 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 58%
- Fair odds
- TB -106
- SEA +106 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 4.4 – 4.2 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1553 | 1504 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +15 | −8 | TB: Shane McClanahan: team allows 0.73 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · SEA: Bryce Miller: team allows 0.38 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +53 Elo | TB 57.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 50.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 51.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TB | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.5 | Runs scored | 4.514th of 30 |
| 1st of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 4.29th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+1.8 | Margin | +0.312th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 30 |
| 7th of 3022–18 | Road vs home | 22–1914th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.