Tampa Bay Rays at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Luke RaleyBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Yonny ChirinosPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Diamondbacks- Lourdes Gurriel Jr.Batting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Drey JamesonPitching3.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 7Gurriel Jr. homered to left (380 feet).6–1
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball In Play6–1
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul6–0
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking6–0
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul6–0
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 26–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 16–0
- 3J. Lowe singled to center, Raley scored and Ramírez scored, Paredes to second.6–0
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play6–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 24–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul4–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 14–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging4–0
- 3Ramírez singled to center, Franco scored, Raley to second.4–0
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball In Play4–0
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball 23–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging3–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging3–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 3Franco tripled to right, Bruján scored and Díaz scored.3–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 1Raley homered to right (383 feet).1–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Diamondbacks 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 50%
- Fair odds
- ARI -105
- TB +105 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 4.8 – 4.9 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1550 | 1524 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −11 | −2 | TB: Zack Littell (no track record yet) · ARI: Brandon Pfaadt: team allows 0.11 more runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB 0 Elo | TB 50.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 51.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 51.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TB | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 305.5 | Runs scored | 5.25th of 30 |
| 1st of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 4.720th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+1.8 | Margin | +0.58th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 9th of 3021–18 | Road vs home | 24–1911th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TB 1–1 ARI in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.