Washington Nationals at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- Stone GarrettBatting2-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Trevor WilliamsPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 1 K
Phillies- Nick CastellanosBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Ranger SuarezPitching5.1 IP, 5 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 7Castellanos doubled to left, Schwarber scored.5–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul5–3
- 5Candelario homered to left center (394 feet).5–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–3
- 3Garrett homered to left center (378 feet), Hill scored, Candelario scored and Meneses scored.4–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–3
- 1Realmuto homered to left center (397 feet), Harper scored.0–3
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–3
- 1Castellanos homered to left center (380 feet).0–1
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking0–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 30–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Phillies 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 58%
- Fair odds
- PHI -124
- WSH +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 4.3 – 4.8 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1474 | 1509 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | +2 | WSH: Trevor Williams: team allows 0.09 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · PHI: Ranger Suarez: team allows 0.11 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +57 Elo | PHI 58.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 54.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 55.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| WSH | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.514th of 30 |
| 26th of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 4.515th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−0.9 | Margin | +0.117th of 30 |
| 3rd of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–43rd of 30 |
| 17th of 3020–22 | Road vs home | 22–156th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
WSH 2–3 PHI in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.