St. Louis Cardinals at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Nolan ArenadoBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jack FlahertyPitching6.2 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Marlins- Luis ArraezBatting3-5
- Eury PerezPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 8Gorman doubled to third, Nootbaar scored, Arenado to third.3–0
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–0
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging2–0
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 7Burleson reached on infield single to shortstop, Gorman scored.2–0
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–0
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 11–0
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking1–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 6Arenado homered to right center (405 feet).1–0
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–0
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Marlins 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA 58%
- Fair odds
- MIA -127
- STL +127 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 4.4 – 5.0 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1480 | 1509 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | +12 | STL: Jack Flaherty: team allows 0.00 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · MIA: Eury Perez: team allows 0.60 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +59 Elo | MIA 58.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 55.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 56.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| STL | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.223rd of 30 |
| 25th of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 4.311th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.5 | Margin | −0.119th of 30 |
| 17th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 26th of 3018–26 | Road vs home | 28–163rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
STL 0–3 MIA in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.