New York Mets at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Francisco LindorBatting3-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Justin VerlanderPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Padres- Manny MachadoBatting2-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Yu DarvishPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 10Machado homered to left center (389 feet), Soto scored.7–5
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball In Play7–5
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking7–3
- 10Lindor singled to left, Alvarez scored and Pham scored.7–3
- 10Pitch 4 : Ball In Play7–3
- 10Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging5–3
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball 25–3
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball 15–3
- 10Alvarez singled to right, McNeil scored.5–3
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–3
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball 14–3
- 10McNeil doubled to right, Marte scored.4–3
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–3
- 5Vogelbach singled to right, Lindor scored.3–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–3
- 3Lindor homered to left (343 feet).2–3
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–3
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 21–3
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 11–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–3
- 2Grisham doubled to right, Sánchez scored.1–3
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–3
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking1–2
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 31–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 21–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
- 1Machado scored on error, Bogaerts safe at first on fielding error by third baseman Guillorme.1–2
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–2
- 1Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Swinging1–1
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 31–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 21–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 1Machado doubled to center, Kim scored.1–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 1Vogelbach reached on infield single to shortstop, Nimmo scored, Alonso to second, Pham to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Padres 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 53%
- Fair odds
- SD -111
- NYM +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 4.2 – 4.4 SD
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1498 | 1507 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | −7 | NYM: Justin Verlander: team allows 0.05 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · SD: Yu Darvish: team allows 0.35 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +19 Elo | SD 52.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 52.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 52.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYM | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.418th of 30 |
| 17th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.04th of 30 |
| 18th of 300.0 | Margin | +0.48th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3021–27 | Road vs home | 21–2222nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NYM 2–1 SD in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.