New York Mets at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Starling MarteBatting2-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Max ScherzerPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 9 K
Diamondbacks- Corbin CarrollBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Zach DaviesPitching5.2 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Walker walked, Ahmed scored, Carroll to second, Fletcher to third.8–5
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball 48–5
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 38–4
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 28–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 18–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul8–4
- 9Lindor doubled to right, Baty scored.8–4
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play8–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 17–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging7–4
- 8Stewart hit sacrifice fly to right, Lindor scored, McNeil to third.7–4
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play7–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 26–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 16–4
- 7Alvarez homered to center (467 feet), Stewart scored.6–4
- 7Pitch 7 : Ball In Play6–4
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball 14–4
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul4–4
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul4–4
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul4–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging4–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–4
- 5Carroll walked, Thomas scored, McCarthy to second, Perdomo to third.4–4
- 5Pitch 8 : Ball 44–4
- 5Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul4–3
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball 34–3
- 5Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul4–3
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging4–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking4–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 24–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 14–3
- 5Nimmo homered to right center (398 feet).4–3
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball In Play4–3
- 5Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul3–3
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking3–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 23–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking3–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 13–3
- 4Gurriel Jr. homered to left center (411 feet).3–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–3
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Diamondbacks 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 53%
- Fair odds
- ARI -120
- NYM +120 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 4.9 – 5.3 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1491 | 1523 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +11 | −20 | NYM: Max Scherzer: team allows 0.56 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · ARI: Zach Davies: team allows 1.00 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +19 Elo | ARI 52.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 54.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 54.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYM | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 5.15th of 30 |
| 18th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.619th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.1 | Margin | +0.48th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–510th of 30 |
| 26th of 3018–27 | Road vs home | 24–2012th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.