Arizona Diamondbacks at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Lourdes Gurriel Jr.Batting2-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Tommy HenryPitching5.2 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Angels- Shohei OhtaniBatting1-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Griffin CanningPitching6.0 IP, 5 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 8Rendon grounded into double play, shortstop to second to first, Ohtani scored, Trout out at second.6–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 16–1
- 8C. Kelly hit sacrifice fly to center, Longoria scored, Fletcher to third.6–1
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–1
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking5–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 15–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–1
- 6Ohtani homered to right (493 feet).5–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 15–0
- 2Gurriel Jr. homered to left (388 feet), McCarthy scored, Perdomo scored and Marte scored.5–0
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball In Play5–0
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball 31–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking1–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 21–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 1Longoria singled to left, Gurriel Jr. scored, Walker to second.1–0
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging0–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Angels 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAA 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAA 52%
- Fair odds
- LAA -107
- ARI +107 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 4.8 – 5.0 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1521 | 1508 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | +5 | ARI: Tommy Henry: team allows 0.04 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · LAA: Griffin Canning: team allows 0.26 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAA +11 Elo | LAA 51.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAA 51.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAA 51.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ARI | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 305.1 | Runs scored | 5.06th of 30 |
| 21st of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 4.616th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.4 | Margin | +0.48th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 30 |
| 2nd of 3024–14 | Road vs home | 22–1810th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.