Chicago White Sox at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Luis Robert Jr.Batting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Dylan CeasePitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 10 K
Angels- Shohei OhtaniBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Reid DetmersPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 10 K
Scoring summary
- 9Trout scored on Bummer wild pitch.1–2
- 9Trout scored on Bummer wild pitch.1–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 11–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 4Ohtani homered to right center (446 feet).1–1
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 31–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 21–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 1Robert Jr. homered to left center (401 feet).1–0
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Angels 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAA 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAA 56%
- Fair odds
- LAA -119
- CHW +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 4.2 – 4.5 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1480 | 1511 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | −6 | CHW: Dylan Cease: team allows 0.14 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · LAA: Reid Detmers: team allows 0.32 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAA +40 Elo | LAA 55.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAA 54.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAA 54.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHW | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 5.06th of 30 |
| 25th of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.515th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−0.8 | Margin | +0.57th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 27th of 3014–25 | Road vs home | 20–1611th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CHW 1–2 LAA in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.