Los Angeles Angels at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Mickey MoniakBatting5-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Griffin CanningPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Rockies- Brenton DoyleBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Noah DavisPitching3.0 IP, 9 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 8Doyle homered to center (426 feet).25–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play25–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 125–1
- 8Ward grounded into fielder's choice to third, Moniak scored, Fletcher out at second.25–0
- 8Pitch 8 : Ball In Play25–0
- 8Pitch 7 : Ball 324–0
- 8Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul24–0
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball 224–0
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul24–0
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul24–0
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking24–0
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 124–0
- 6Ward grounded into fielder's choice to third, Moniak scored, Fletcher out at second.24–0
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play24–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 223–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 123–0
- 4Fletcher homered to left (363 feet), Escobar scored and Moniak scored.23–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play23–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul20–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking20–0
- 4Moniak doubled to right, Thaiss scored and Renfroe scored, Escobar to third.20–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play20–0
- 4Renfroe doubled to center, Drury scored, Thaiss to third.18–0
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play18–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 217–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging17–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 117–0
- 4Thaiss singled to right, Trout scored, Drury to third.17–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play17–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 116–0
- 4Drury singled to left, Ward scored, Trout to second.16–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play16–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul15–0
- 3Moniak homered to right center (409 feet), Escobar scored.15–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play15–0
- 3Escobar singled to right, Renfroe scored.13–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play13–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul12–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking12–0
- 3Renfroe doubled to right, Thaiss scored, Trout scored and Drury scored.12–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Angels 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAA 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAA 56%
- Fair odds
- LAA -102
- COL +102 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 5.4 – 5.3 COL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1508 | 1464 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | −13 | LAA: Griffin Canning: team allows 0.05 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · COL: Chase Anderson: team allows 0.65 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAA +40 Elo | LAA 55.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 50.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAA 50.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAA | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.417th of 30 |
| 15th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 5.729th of 30 |
| 15th of 30+0.2 | Margin | −1.328th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 2–828th of 30 |
| 11th of 3021–20 | Road vs home | 17–1925th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
LAA 0–1 COL in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.