Los Angeles Angels at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Shohei OhtaniBatting3-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Patrick SandovalPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Rockies- Elias DiazBatting3-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Kyle FreelandPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Díaz homered to center (426 feet), Castro scored, Tovar scored and McMahon scored.4–7
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–7
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking4–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 14–3
- 6Tovar singled to right, Montero scored, Profar to second, Montes to third.4–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–2
- 5Trout homered to center (434 feet).4–2
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking3–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 23–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 13–2
- 5Ohtani homered to right center (434 feet).3–2
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 22–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 12–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–2
- 2Montes singled to center, Montero scored.2–2
- 2Pitch 9 : Ball In Play2–2
- 2Pitch 8 : Ball 22–1
- 2Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 2Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 2Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 12–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–1
- 2Rengifo hit sacrifice fly to center, Padlo scored.2–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 2Padlo doubled to left, Renfroe scored on fielding error by left fielder Profar, Padlo safe at third on throwing error by left fielder Profar.1–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 1Profar homered to left center (415 feet).0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Automatic Strike 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Angels 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAA 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAA 54%
- Fair odds
- LAA -102
- COL +102 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 5.3 – 5.3 COL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1510 | 1461 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | +3 | LAA: Patrick Sandoval: team allows 0.13 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · COL: Kyle Freeland: team allows 0.17 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAA +30 Elo | LAA 54.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 50.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAA 50.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAA | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.418th of 30 |
| 15th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 5.729th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+0.3 | Margin | −1.328th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 2–827th of 30 |
| 11th of 3021–19 | Road vs home | 16–1926th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.