Los Angeles Angels at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Shohei OhtaniBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Tyler AndersonPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 9 K
Rockies- Ezequiel TovarBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Austin GomberPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Moniak doubled to center, Escobar scored.3–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 12–4
- 7Tovar singled to right, Doyle scored.2–4
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 22–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 12–3
- 6Drury hit sacrifice fly to center, Ohtani scored.2–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 21–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 11–3
- 6Ohtani tripled to center, Ward scored.1–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 10–3
- 5Tovar homered to right center (410 feet).0–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 4Montero hit sacrifice fly to left, Jones scored, Alfaro to third.0–2
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–2
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 30–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 20–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 1Díaz hit sacrifice fly to center, Grichuk scored.0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Angels 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAA 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAA 55%
- Fair odds
- LAA -103
- COL +103 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 5.7 – 5.7 COL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1512 | 1459 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | −5 | LAA: Tyler Anderson: team allows 0.17 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · COL: Austin Gomber: team allows 0.27 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAA +36 Elo | LAA 55.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 50.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAA 50.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAA | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 305.1 | Runs scored | 4.418th of 30 |
| 15th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 5.929th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+0.5 | Margin | −1.629th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 1–928th of 30 |
| 11th of 3022–20 | Road vs home | 17–2026th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
LAA 1–1 COL in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.